New research reveals XBB.1.5 COVID-19 vaccine considerably reduces hospitalizations and ICU admissions in older adults

In a latest research posted to the medRxiv pre-print* server, a group of researchers evaluated the effectiveness of the XBB.1.5 coronavirus illness 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine in decreasing hospitalizations and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions amongst beforehand vaccinated adults aged 60 and over within the Netherlands from October to December 2023.

Research: Early COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness of XBB.1.5 vaccine in opposition to hospitalization and ICU admission, the Netherlands, 9 October – 5 December 2023. Picture Credit score: NIAID

*Necessary discover: medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reviews that aren’t peer-reviewed and, subsequently, shouldn’t be thought to be conclusive, information scientific observe/health-related habits, or handled as established info.

Background

In 2023, the Netherlands initiated its seasonal COVID-19 vaccination marketing campaign on October 2, specializing in people 60 years and older, healthcare employees, pregnant girls, and people with medical dangers utilizing the XBB1.5 Comirnaty vaccine. Private vaccination invites had been mailed to residents 60+ from early October to late November. As of early December,  42.9% of this demographic had been vaccinated, and the marketing campaign is ready to proceed till the top of December. Additional analysis is critical to completely perceive the long-term effectiveness and impression of the XBB.1.5 COVID-19 vaccine on hospitalization and ICU admission charges, particularly as the continuing seasonal vaccination marketing campaign progresses and extra knowledge turns into obtainable post-December 2023.

Concerning the research 

The analysis group employed the screening methodology to evaluate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the 2023 seasonal COVID-19 vaccination amongst people aged 60 and older within the Netherlands who had obtained no less than one prior COVID-19 vaccination. The evaluation centered on these recorded within the nationwide inhabitants register as of September 25, 2023. Hospitalization knowledge, overlaying the interval from October 9 to December 5, 2023, had been sourced from the Nationwide Institute for Well being and Care Excellence (NICE) COVID-19 database on December 11, 2023, to permit for reporting delays. This dataset accounted for roughly 55% of all COVID-19 hospitalizations within the Netherlands through the research interval, based on comparisons with nameless knowledge from the Nationwide Coordination Middle for Affected person Distribution.

Hospitalization information had been deterministically linked to the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination database (CIMS) through the Citizen Service Quantity. The CIMS registry, which depends on vaccine consent for recording vaccinations, confirmed a consent price of over 95% in earlier booster campaigns and 98% for the 2023 seasonal marketing campaign. However, people included on this research who had no less than one vaccination recorded in CIMS since January 2021 anticipated that these folks would additionally consent to document their present 12 months’s (seasonal) vaccine doses and, subsequently, cut back classification errors.

Though the official begin of the 2023 seasonal vaccination marketing campaign within the Netherlands was October 2, some facilities started vaccinations as early as September 25, which had been included within the marketing campaign evaluation. People vaccinated inside 90 days earlier than September 25 had been excluded. To account for the vaccine’s immunological response time, an individual’s standing was up to date to “seasonal dose obtained” seven days post-vaccination, excluding this era from the evaluation. The vaccination standing was equally decided at hospital admission. Utilizing the CIMS registry, the vaccinated inhabitants’s proportion was calculated, stratified by area, date, intercourse, and age up till the fifteenth of the month of demise, emigration, or research finish.

A logistic regression mannequin estimated VE and its 95% confidence intervals. On this mannequin, vaccination standing was the dependent variable, and the covariate-specific logit of the seasonal dose obtained within the inhabitants served as an offset. The mannequin’s exponentiated intercept was interpreted because the relative danger (RR), and VE was calculated as (1-RR) x 100%.

VE estimates 

The 2023 seasonal COVID-19 vaccination marketing campaign within the Netherlands targeting high-risk teams, comparable to these aged 60 and above. Of those, the research excludes 86 hospitalizations (together with three ICU admissions) inside seven days post-vaccination, and included of their evaluation are a complete of two,050 circumstances admitted to hospitals. Amongst them, 295 (14.4 %) had obtained the seasonal COVID-19 vaccine for 2023. It was discovered that there have been extra hospitalizations amongst these aged 75 and older than within the age group of 60-74. Throughout the course of the marketing campaign, hospitalizations amongst vaccinated individuals have elevated progressively; this clearly displays {that a} large-scale rollout is underway.

The VE in opposition to hospitalization was 70.7 % (CI, 66.6 to 74.3). Among the many 92 circumstances of ICU admissions analyzed, VE was estimated at roughly 73.3 % (CI 42.2 to 87.6). The VE for the 60-74 age group (VE = 68.3%, CI :58.3 to 75.9) was barely decrease than that of these aged seventy-five and over (VE=V:Y%). In contrast with final 12 months’s fall marketing campaign, this research’s VE estimates had been barely increased for these aged 60-79.

The researchers utilized the screening methodology, contemplating the unfinished knowledge from the NICE hospitalization database because of the registration burden on hospitals. They included geographic areas within the mannequin to regulate for attainable variations in knowledge completeness. Nonetheless, there have been limitations that may have led to an underestimation of VE, comparable to the lack to regulate for comorbidities, which usually leads to increased VE estimates. Moreover, the research’s preliminary interval possible represented early vaccine recipients, who might need been frailer. The vaccination standing of circumstances was decided on the time of hospitalization, which could not have allowed ample time for the vaccine to forestall extreme illness.

In distinction, there might need been an overestimation of VE because of the usually higher well being of vaccine recipients (wholesome vaccine bias). The research additionally famous that the majority people obtained their fourth booster dose through the marketing campaign, with solely 0.2% receiving a fifth booster. The median time because the final booster dose was considerably totally different between those that had and had not obtained the 2023 vaccine, probably affecting VE estimates. Nonetheless, a research throughout six European nations indicated that the variety of booster doses didn’t considerably impression VE in opposition to hospitalization, and effectiveness usually waned six months after any booster dose.

*Necessary discover: medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reviews that aren’t peer-reviewed and, subsequently, shouldn’t be thought to be conclusive, information scientific observe/health-related habits, or handled as established info.